MilestoneTheory & algorithmsClaimed
Iceberg Quantum estimates RSA-2048 could be broken with under 100,000 qubits
Feb 12, 2026
In a preprint posted on Feb. 12, 2026, Australian startup Iceberg Quantum proposed the Pinnacle architecture, built on quantum LDPC error-correcting codes. It estimates that 2048-bit RSA keys could be cracked with under 100,000 physical qubits, about ten times fewer than earlier estimates, at error rates near 0.1%.
Why it matters
RSA is one of the most widely used public-key encryption systems. Smaller estimates for a code-breaking machine bring that threat closer, although this one rests on simulations and theory, not experiments.
Sources (2)
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arXiv (Webster et al., Iceberg Quantum)
The Pinnacle Architecture: Reducing the cost of breaking RSA-2048 to 100 000 physical qubits using quantum LDPC codes
“With this architecture, we show that 2048-bit RSA integers can be factored with fewer than one hundred thousand physical qubits”
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The Quantum Insider
New Architecture Could Cut Quantum Hardware Needed to Break RSA-2048 by Tenfold, Study Finds
“Researchers at Iceberg Quantum report in an arXiv preprint that their “Pinnacle Architecture” could factor RSA-2048 using fewer than 100,000 physical qubits under standard hardware assumptions, significantly below many prior estimates.”
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