PredictionPolicy & securityPending
Experts: a code-breaking quantum computer is likely within 15 years
Due 2041
Experts surveyed for the Global Risk Institute's 2025 Quantum Threat Timeline Report judged a quantum computer able to break today's public-key encryption quite possible (28-49%) within 10 years and likely (51-70%) within 15.
- Predicted by
- Michele Mosca, Marco Piani (Global Risk Institute)
- Type
- Expert survey
- Said on
- Mar 9, 2026
- Original deadline
- within the next 15 years (2041)
- Status
- Pending
Sources (2)
-
Global Risk Institute
Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025
“Survey respondents believe the quantum threat is “looming,” with a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) quite possible (28-49%) within the next 10 years, and likely (51-70%) in the next 15.”
-
evolutionQ
Quantum Threat Timeline Research Report 2025
“the likelihood of a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) capable of breaking today's encryption now estimated at 28–49% within 10 years, and 51–70% within 15 years.”
Each quote above was checked automatically against the original page. Added Oct 15, 2026. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will review it.