PredictionIndustryMissed

Microsoft to have a quantum computer on the market within five years

Due Dec 2022

Todd Holmdahl, head of Microsoft's quantum computing effort, told Bloomberg in December 2017 that Microsoft would have a quantum computer on the market within five years. Microsoft was building its own machine based on a design called topological qubits.

Predicted by
Todd Holmdahl (Microsoft)
Type
Company executive
Said on
Dec 11, 2017
Original deadline
within five years (Dec 2022)
Status
Missed
Counts toward
the Quantum Supremacy estimate

Outcome

Jun 21, 2023: Microsoft had no quantum computer of its own on the market by the end of 2022. In June 2023 it published a roadmap to build one, with most milestones still ahead; in February 2025 it unveiled a research chip that it says holds eight topological qubits.

Outcome sources

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