PredictionError correctionPending
Scott Aaronson: fault-tolerant Shor's algorithm possible before the 2028 US election
Due Nov 2028
Computer scientist Scott Aaronson wrote that it is a live possibility that a fault-tolerant quantum computer will run Shor's factoring algorithm before the next US presidential election, adding that factoring even the number 15 would count.
- Predicted by
- Scott Aaronson (The University of Texas at Austin)
- Type
- Expert
- Said on
- Nov 13, 2025
- Original deadline
- before the next US presidential election (Nov 2028)
- Status
- Pending
Sources (2)
-
Shtetl-Optimized (Scott Aaronson's blog)
Quantum computing: too much to handle!
“Indeed, given the current staggering rate of hardware progress, I now think it’s a live possibility that we’ll have a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm before the next US presidential election.”
-
Shtetl-Optimized (Scott Aaronson's blog)
Quantum Investment Bros: Have you no shame?
“As I later clarified, I’ll consider this “live possibility” to be fulfilled even if a fault-tolerant Shor’s algorithm is “merely” used to factor 15 into 3×5”
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